Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Post Super Tuesday, Will Gingrich Drop Out and Improve the Field on the National Question?

Gingrich took only one state yesterday, his home state of Georgia where he was a representative for many years, with a simple plurality of the vote.  One questions whether he'll drop out soon now.  Personally, I hope so, as that'll push the remaining field in the right direction on the national question.  Santorum and Romney, with A- and B- ratings respectively, are both fairly decent on the national question---probably as good as we can reasonably expect in our profoundly dysfunctional political culture.  Looking at the delegate counts, a brokered convention looks unlikely, as Romney seems on track to accumulate the requisite delegates.  Should Gingrich drop out, Santorum might be able to beat him to the finish line if most of Gingrich's support falls behind him, as I suspect it would.  Should neither get the requisite numbers, Paul is actually slowly accumulating delegates himself and might be able to play a kingmaker role.

Looking forward to the general election, Romney and Santorum each bring several wild cards.

Romney has the Mormon thing going on---it's difficult to predict exactly how that's going to play after nonstop anti-Mormon propaganda for a couple of seasons.  Will the propaganda backfire, creating sympathy for him, particularly in light of the recent persecution of the Catholic church?  Will the more religious say, Yeah, they're heretics, but the Left hates them so intensely maybe we shouldn't?  Or will they see 'As we are, God once was, as He is, we may become' and totally freak out about that heretical 'Dungeons and Dragons theology' (where God is basically just the highest level spirit around, and being a good Mormon racks up the experience points such that you might become a planetary demigod or maybe even higher after your death if you gain enough levels).  Romney would be wise to pick a vice-presidential candidate that has clear 'fath & practice' orthodox Christian credentials.

Santorum has the abject and utter hatred of the Cultural Marxist left, especially the homosexuals, who have made his name an epithet.  It's difficult to predict just how much this is going to hurt with a season of media water torture in the polls.  There's also the Bella Santorum factor.  How is the public going to react to that human interest, especially if, as likely, her condition worsens?  It's interesting that Santorum has not been winning the Catholic vote in the primaries---I attribute this to the fact that Santorum is a bona fide Catholic and most Catholics in the US are either Catholics in Name Only or Cafeteria Catholics and he makes them distinctly uncomfortable for that reason.  I bet he even goes to Confession regularly and favors the Tridentine Mass.  I'm not sure what Santorum can do to help himself in terms of a vice-presidential candidate.  Hell, it's not out of the question that he might become the vice presidential candidate.


Anonymous said...

Wall Street Journal National Poll, Released March 3rd 2012, link)

50 Obama
44 Romney

50 Obama
42 Paul

53 Obama
39 Santorum

54 Obama
37 Gingrich

Other polls mostly tell different stories. Romney really is most electable. Ron Paul is surprisingly electable.

CNN/ORC Poll. Feb. 10-13, 2012. N=937 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3

Feb 10-13, 2012
52 Obama
45 Santorum

51 Obama
46 Romney

Jan 11-12, 2012
51 Obama
45 Santorum

47 Obama
48 Romney

It's possible that Santorum has a cap of 45%.

Jehu said...

Ron Paul would be the most electable IMO, but he won't be given the nomination. I agree that Romney is likely the next most electable. I think the election will turn on the price of gasoline this summer though.