AGW/CC and Peak Oil are both tales of doom. Accordingly, most of us are inclined to bin them in the same batch, often the circular file. This would, IMO, be a mistake, because these two tales of doom couldn't be more different, despite the fact that the two have a significant overlap in adherents. This overlap is somewhat curious I suppose, given that if the fossil fuels available at reasonable effort and cost decline, so too would the purported driver for AGW/CC. But let's summarize:
1. AGW/CC generally goes out of its way to avoid making predictions that are falsifiable in the short term and when it does, they've generally been wrong. Peak Oil on the other hand expounded the prediction that global oil production would peak sometime in the 2000 timeframe. Most observers note that we've been on a fairly flat plateau of production since around 2005. If the peak oil crowd is right, we'll start to slope downward, probably before 2015. US oil imports have already sloped significantly downward. If they're wrong, then we'll see us rise from this present plateau.
2. AGW/CC has significant power to punish its enemies, especially if they're scientists looking for grant money or favorable peer review, and it uses it. Peak oil has no such power, in fact you can argue with a fair bit of success that it has negative power in that arena.
3. There's a lot of money in AGW/CC for the rent seeker, at least if you're a warmist. Peak oil can barely support a few cheap websites on the internet and a motley assortment of hangers-on.
4. Mainstream AGW/CC believers say we should sacrifice more power to the governments, which will buy indulgences and save us, and governments push AGW/CC very heavily themselves. Peak oil believers tend to just believe we're screwed, and if anything, governments tend to seriously downplay Peak oil.
5. AGW/CC types VERY rarely advance a program of solution that would actually solve the problem that they've identified. Peak oil believers generally believe that without a major technological rabbit from a hat (e.g., cold fusion, major battery technology and power transmission improvements, or the like) that there is no real solution.
Either proposition, AGW/CC or Peak Oil might be correct or might be false. AGW/CC however has 5 big glaring red flags that Peak Oil does not have---the sort of flags that historically scream scam. Therefore I recommend some investigation into it to reactionaries who are doing contingency planning for their future and that of their children.
To change the culture V: metahistory
2 days ago