Monday, December 5, 2011

Looking for information to update priors

I've a few questions that perhaps some of my readers could answer.

Question #1:  Are Denver/Colorado churches reporting significant upticks in attendance relative to the same time last year?
For which priors---I'm interested in whether there's a 'Tebow effect'.  My gut says there probably is due to a 2nd order memetic entanglement, i.e. I'm a Broncos fan, therefore I have to be a Tebow fan, therefore I ought to go to church more frequently.

Question #2:  Has recruitment in the upper levels of the various Norwegian Socialist Parties suffered now that Norway has had a chance to partially digest the impact of the Brevik slayings
For which priors---I'm interested if my estimation that the sort of people that inhabit the middle and upper levels of bureaucracies have fairly low morale and thus will be deterred from seeking positions by the possibility of retaliation against their teenage and young adult children is correct.  What probability of retaliation against my children would be sufficient to deter me from practicing engineering for a given company?  The probability wouldn't have to be very high.  My current take is that political candidates are likely to be relatively undeterred but bureaucrats and other 'lifers' are much more likely to be intimidated.


Anonymous said...

As for #2, for that class, it's not just a matter of being deterred from one possible career path. There IS only one career path. That career path is their whole world. Without it, they don't even exist.

For the hereditary ruling class, anything but rulership is an unbearable humiliation. For the upwardly mobile ambitious ones who want their kids to join the ruling class, can you imagine a tiger mother sending her kids to Iowa State because there's crime on ivy campuses? I can't.

Jehu said...

There are lots of parties in Norway. Perhaps many might find that suddenly a more 'Green' party is more their speed.
And here we're talking a LOT of crime---would you send your child to Harvard if you estimated a 10% probability that they'd be done in there? Particularly if there are 2nd tier Ivy league options?

Reality Check said...

Do you know what happened to the Cold Equations blog?

Jehu said...

No, unfortunately not. I'll keep his link up for another few weeks before I mothball it on the odd chance that Cold Equations comes back.