With quite a few potentials to break through that level.
As I've indicated before, I believe that Obama is sunk if the price stays north of $4 for any meaningful period this year. Perhaps he understands this too, given the talk of releasing from the strategic reserve.
A lot depends on the path that hurricanes take this year, and their number and severity---not just the one menacing the Republican convention. Iran is of course a factor as well, as is the unfolding nonstop crisis in Europe. Will Greece exit or be ejected before the election? Will another of the PIIGS' shoes drop?